SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de KT7H

ZCZC AP35
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 27, 1994
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux was down this past week.  From May 20 through 23
geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with the A index below ten each
day, and K indices at one or zero about 25 percent of the time.
 
While solar flux is declining again, geomagnetic disturbances are
expected to rise.  Look for solar flux to drop to around 70 after
the first of the month, and disturbed geomagnetic conditions caused
by a recurring coronal hole to peak around May 31 and again on June
3.  The high A and K values should gradually taper off, but probably
won't reach normal until mid June.
 
We could see some disturbed conditions during the WPX CW Contest
this weekend, with the A index rising to 20 or 30.
 
Soon we will be seeing a shift to Summer radio conditions, with
higher noise levels on the low bands, increase in sporadic-E short
skip propagation on higher frequencies, lower optimum frequencies
for daytime propagation, and improving high frequency propagation
during the evening.
 
Last week there was an error in the mean value given for solar flux.
Instead of 89.8 it was really 91.2.
 
Sunspot Numbers from May 19 through 25 were 48, 35, 35, 31, 26, 22
and 12, with a mean of 29.9.  10.7 cm flux was 90.6, 89.8, 87.7,
84.6, 81, 77.9 and 74.2, with a mean of 83.7.
 
The path projection for this week is from Bridgeville, Delaware to
the Aland Islands, OH0.
 
80 meters should be open from 0100 to 0230z and 40 meters from
2330 to 0500.  30 meters may be open most days from 2230 to
0100, and every day from 0330 to 0600.  20 meters should be open
most days from 1830 to 2030, and some days may open as early as
1500.  Conditions do not look good at this time for frequencies
above 20 meters.  
NNNN
/EX
